"A stochastic modification of the spherical block-and-fault model of lithosphere dynamics and seismicity"
Melnikova L.A. and Rozenberg V.L.

A brief description of the last version of the spherical block-and-fault model is discussed. This version takes into account random factors essentially influencing the dynamics of model parameters. Two variants of introducing stochasticity into the procedures for calculating the forces acting on a block and determining the model earthquakes are tested. This stochasticity consists in (i) adding a noise to the differential equations describing the dynamics of elastic forces and inelastic displacements and in (ii) using random quantities when specifying strength thresholds for the medium of tectonic faults. Numerical experiments demonstrate the perspectivity of introducing stochasticity into the model.

Keywords: block-and-fault models of lithosphere dynamics and seismicity, synthetic earthquake catalogs, scalability of parallel algorithms, parallel computing, stochastic analysis, stochastic differential equations.

  • Melnikova L.A. – Krasovskii Institute of Mathematics and Mechanics, Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences; ulitsa Sof’i Kovalevskoi 16, Ekaterinburg, 620990, Russia; Principal Programmer, e-mail: meln@imm.uran.ru
  • Rozenberg V.L. – Krasovskii Institute of Mathematics and Mechanics, Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences; ulitsa Sof’i Kovalevskoi 16, Ekaterinburg, 620990, Russia; Ph.D., Senior Scientist, e-mail: rozen@imm.uran.ru